Watch market update 2020 Fall/winter

Never had we tried to make a market prediction in such dire situations. I remembered earlier in the year, we had predicted the virus will be swiftly brought under control; at the same time anticipated slowdown will not hit the prices of popular models, mainly because of the penned-up demands and the “revenge” buying after the easing from the lockdown. But our optimism that the situation will be under control and life will be back to normal, seem like a distant utopia now:
The New Norm
It is inevitable now that the Covid became biggest factor affecting the world’s economy today. It will have a lasting damage to the economy in the next 2-3years at least. Not only it permanently change the way we work and live, it is changes the way we spend. While we anticipated a mass exodus in the tourism, retail, F&B; there are also another mirrored problem:
– We can no longer spend money on overseas vacations. Suddenly there is unused recreational Budget for those people who’s fortunate to be spared from the onslaught. These are the possibilities these people who may decide to use the surplus fund for watch purchase (or investment).
– Because of working from home and social distancing. We also have to redefine the way we dress. Do we still wear a watch in our zoom meetings? Zoom actually give us a rare chance to put on our beloved watch. So it is unsurprising that participants actually spotted wearing a watch despite of no necessity to do so.
– Watches as investment, somehow this notion seem to be gaining popularity as a result of inflated shares and bond prices. While most investors are still struggling to under the unearthly shares prices around, despite of the damages pandemic had inflected on the economies, share market valuation is seemly out of reality. But we must understand the limitless of money pumped in have to go somewhere and that where the problem is… the rich get richer: the redistribution of liquidity is never uniform, struggling business may have gotten handouts but in reality these cash injections may only temporary save some of the jobs, but the bulk of injection goes to the unlimited share and bonds purchase Fed Reserve promised. Hence, we do anticipated the spill over from the financial markets, and fresh funds will be trickle into watch market as well. Especially during a time where hash reality make the share market look increasingly over priced, while the notion of watch investment/speculation is gaining traction.
– Polarization of prices: So we have this possible situation of people selling watches to keep their business alive, while raging hot monies looking for assets to invest. We feel their will be further divergence of watch prices, “blue chip” watches price goes up, while prices for less attractive watches remain depressed. Already we are seeing signs and traces of this happening, in auctions and on the used watch markets, from Speculative models such as hulk, ceramic Daytona to investment grade Vintage Rolex, Pateks, independent FP Journe etc. Prices are surging, while the rest of watches lagged further and further behind.
What might happen?
As humanity struggles and learns to coexist with the virus, we have to clearly understand how the pandemic going change our life. Socialization, meetups, functions, parties become a less common, hence a reduce wrist time for all watch collectors. Downsizing a collection is an unlikely option; it is possible that emphasis on collection will be more skewed towards investment rather than personal enjoyment. Wrist watch can a be subtle and discreet wealth, easy to hide from the public, they’re also easy to transport. So much value can be condensed into such a small object. So this love affair with wrist watch is set to continue, except that market now are more selective. Getting the best watches for collection is paramount for the well-heeled collectors. At the same time owners of the best watches are now getting more reluctant to part with their treasures, that’s when the investors/collectors have to settle for the next best. High prices have to be paid for current production models as collectors with money goes in search of iconic watches, but have to settled for what’s available. The travel restrictions are greatly reduced the movement of watches across the borders. International travel grinds to halt and travelers no longer able to purchase watches from overseas AD, hence all AD will have to rely on local shoppers or the grey dealers again.
Quick take on the Brands that we watching:
Rolex: We are looking to the possible release of Explorer 2 50th Anniversary in the next summer. Interest in 16570 are increasing and the 42mm 216570 despite the likely hood of discon, still remain pretty lukewarm. Rolex will be release news of new models of 2020 in early September, hence the much anticipated the discontinued of Submariner Date models might be finally confirmed (hopefully).However, we did observed the market already price in the discontinued of 116610LN and 116610LV, we might suggest 116619LB “Smurf” or 116618LB might be another 2 alternatives for investors.
Patek Phillipe: the discontinuation of Nautilus 5711/1A white in spring is a notable development, interesting though as we feel that white dial is slowly but surely getting the collectors’ attention. So might be worthwhile to keep and eye on the Nautilus polar “trio” of 5711/1A, 5726/1A and 5980/1A and see how the market for white dials develops. On the new release, seem like Patek Phillipe is choosing to releasing the 2020 models collection by collection. The limited edition 6007A is shocking and that’s absolutely the most underwhelming Patek release of the decade. It is straight away entered our Patek Phillipe hall of shame, alongside the much disappointing Patek Pilot watch collection (although many collectors will strongly disagreed on both). While we still yet to recovered from the shock of 6007A, Patek launched the new models for Grande Complications, including the 5270J, that helps restore some of our lost faith in the brand.
 
What we ought to do?
Despite of the strong demand for popular watches now, but we do expect 2021 to be challenging as the Covid crisis prolonged. It will surely affect consumer sentiment as recession sets in.
We were preaching on having to maintain a stronger cash position since the latter half of 2019. We will continue to reduce the holding of physical watch. At the same time we are on the look out for good value investments. Contemporary Patek Phillipe watches seem unvalued against the sports watches. They by and large overlooked and there are certainly gems waiting to be uncovered.
While we do not see an imminent fall in prices of Rolex & Patek Phillipe sports watches, but we feel they are fully priced and upside will be limited. Although there maybe some exceptions, as news of discontinued of certain sports Rolex will weight in on the prices.
For investment over a longer term horizon, we should our focus on the contemporary and vintage Patek Phillipe. Patek Philippe some how are finding it hard to keep up with its own legacy. Their modern design somehow didn’t produce the charm and magic that they had in the past, we do hope that the interest for older Patek pick up from here.
Les Precision update: For the near term we ourselves bought in 116619LBs on the possibility of discon. There is a higher chance of white gold being entirely discontinued from the submariner family. At the same time reducing our holding of GMT2 116710LN and SD4K 116600 and other SS Rolex sports. All this are done while maintaining about the same about cash position as we having from last half a year ago.

Watch market update 2020 Spring- Summer

Watch market update 2020 Spring- Summer**
In 2019, most financial analysts predict 2020 as the year of recession. The inversion of Bond yields spook investors (short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates. This type of yield curve seldom occur and is considered to be a predictor of economic recession). Fed reserve also turn dovish and lower the interest rates as result. For a good part of the decade, many economists predicted China as the most cause of economic crisis. Statistics are appalling, over leveraged, shadow banking, housing bubble, ghost cities will empty new apartment blocks…
These fears are unfounded, again Chinese government have rolled out policies after policies to keep these problem in checks. Now it is clear recession is indeed coming, but the cause is something that no one predicted. (as like previous financial crisis) It is a the COVID-19 that will cause the downturn. Of course hardest hit is China and that’s gonna stall lot of manufacturing production lines, supply chain is gonna hit hard. Many end products such as iPhone and automobiles are not going to be deliver as schedule. Companies missed earnings, retail, F&B tourism business across the affected countries going to be hit hard.
However, this recession is unlike the Great Recession of 2008 or the Asian Financial Crisis of 2008 or the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998. Here’s why:
1. this crisis in not a destroyer of asset unlike the previous 2 crisis. It disrupt the spending, production and supply chains. Disruption will be temporary if countries are able to control the spread and stabilize the situation with months.
2. The survival rates of the COVID-19 virus is actually high, thanks to modern medicine; unlike the previous Pandemic for example like the Black Death in the Middle Ages where 50% of the population in some cities was reportedly annihilated.
3. Measures against economic slow down already in place. Central Banks have acted quickly and this is evident from the reaction at the stock market across the globe. Confidence that the disease will be brought to control soon, hopefully.
4. Strong rebound in consumer spending expected aftermaths the pandemic eradication. Surely the sense of relieve of the general public maybe spur a suddenly spending spree will uplift the post-pandemic economy.
For watch market, resale price took a dip in 2H 2019 and stabilized somewhat during the January 2020. February we saw price for some Rolex Sports rebounded, bear in mind that happened while the virus is on the loose. Partly it is the weakening of SGD that send the prices creeping up somewhat. Rumor of 116610LN & 116610LN discon also cause a renew interest in these models.
Although early signs indicated a slowing down in the Swiss watch export to China, as retail grinds to a halt in some major cities across China. But that not necessarily means that resale price gonna take a huge plunge. It is possible grey market sales will be offset somewhat by online purchase, as shoppers are unwilling to leave the homes. As of now still too early to tell how resale prices will be affected should this crisis prolong.
Brand new Rolex & Patek sports prices should remain stable as the demand is still strong: there is consistent backlog of order/waiting-list everywhere. But a word of caution: we might see a decline of the used/resale watches prices should the crisis prolong deeper into the summer.
As mentioned above, the main difference between this crisis and previous this time round asset value are not destroy. Although spending may slow down and decelerate the growth; business such as retail will be taking a big hit. But destruction or individual wealth won’t be as bad as 2008 or 1998, hence there will not be a repeat of Daytona at S$12,000 and Kermit at S$7,000 (of 2008-9).
At this moment we don’t see a need to panic sell, but remember, like we always preach upon time to time: relook/review sell your excess watches in your collection every few months. Clear the access, also do look out for the buying opportunities too. Since there is less intense competition for collectible watches now. You might just get the grail watch that you wanted so much.
Disclaimer:
*Do note that “prices” we refer to in this article are for sports Rolex and Patek Nautilus and Aquanaut. Any reference to other brands will be mention according.
**This article is written based on the current situation, on assuming a more hopeful and optimistic CONVID-19 situational outcome, where WHO guidelines are adhere by those affected Nations. We will also disclaimed against the other possibilities of disruptions to the economy like for example trade war or oil/energy shock.
 

Iconic Watch Design

Wrist watches only start to become popular during the early part of the 20th Century. Over the past 100years human ingenuity had pushed technology boundaries and many of the watch designs matured into icons. How do we define an Iconic Watch design? They must be:

1) Widely recognizable and well-established designs

2) Widely known and acknowledged especially for its distinctive look

The essence and DNA of an iconic watch can be further define by these attributes:

Practicality

First and foremost any watch design has to be practical and functional. We wear watches because we want it to tell time clearly and accurately, if it can’t do that, we can safely say that the design is doomed right from the start. If we design a dive watch, it must be water-proof and yet able to tell time accurately when underwater.

 

Design for the future

A watch design can so forward-looking that it is destiny for popularity, even in the future. We can easily relate this to the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak or the Rolex Paul Newman Daytona, where the popularity these models only came several decades later, despite of lukewarm response when launched. However, it is also possible to have instant icon, a good example is Richard Mille.

 

Consistent Appearance

Technological innovations and advancement over the years contribute to rise of various key components of watches. For example, components for a Rolex dive watch: metal bracelets, crown guards, screw-down crown, luminous marker, rotating bezel, helium escape valves. They are reuse over and over again, Rolex watch designs do not have big iteration from one generation to the next. Hence, the look and form of the watch is mostly retained with only some subtle modifications. The consistency in appearance makes it recognizable over the years and immortalized the aesthetic appeal of the watch. So successful and distinctive of this evolution of dive watch design, Rolex Submariner and Sea-Dweller later became the standard which many of the subsequent dive watches design are base upon. 

 

Legends and Myth

Good designs don’t always arise from necessity; it may come about by a spark of creativity. Everyone knows, Gerald Genta completed the design of Nautilus in 5 minutes, while observing the people from Patek Philippe eating in a restaurant. Some watches are well remembered for its relations with triumphs of mankind. For example, Omega Speedmaster Professional (Moon Watch) was associated Apollo moon landings and as well as some other early NASA projects. Those Plastic Swatch Watches were recognizable icon as they marks the turning point of the Quartz crisis of 1970-1980s, their popularity kept many of the watch parts suppliers alive and inevitably saved the Swiss watch industry.

Watch Investment

“What watch to invest?” I was asked this question countless of times. Although I have flipped enough watches in the recently past. Yet never once I can answer this question with any full conviction.

Why is it so hard? First we must understand the intend is to “invest”. Many people (who asked this question) just want justification to buy a watch to wear, but they are hoping it’ll worth more in future too. Factoring headwinds like deterioration of watch condition and servicing cost, it is indeed a challenging question to answer. This is almost the same question as “which company shares shall I invest?” These watch buyers want to buy the next FAANG of Geneva……

Patek Phillipe 5070R with Lemania based Caliber CH 27-70

It is impossible to predict the trends of the future. Some of the watches that became a real collectable like Rolex Paul Newman Daytona, Patek Phillipe Nautilus, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak etc. weren’t born a celebrity. In fact they are not popular at launch and it difficult to sell them in the 1970s and 1980s. Because they didn’t sell exactly that well, number made were limited, hence making them a rarity. Once considered as a “funky” the exotic dial Paul Newman suddenly became a hot property as taste changed.  But we shouldn’t be choosing to buy “ugly” unpopular watches now, but rather, we shall put the focus on choosing the timepiece that will still be love by collectors in future. How can we start choosing a watch out of the thousands of design? First we need to ask yourselves, why do we need a beautiful hand crafted mechanical wrist watch?:

  1. Hobby 
  2. Asset
  3. Discreet
  4. Easy storage and transport
  5. Watch as buddy follow where you go, part of your life; your legacy
  6. Pass it down to the next generation
  7. Investment for Monetary and Value appreciation

The main motivation behind having a watch collection + investment is the journey and joy of doing it. Before we part our hard earn cash, we need to how to protect our investment and to ensure choice of watches will not fall off the trends and value plummets in future.

Fundamentals that make any watch a great investment:

  1. Craftsmanship
  2. Design that’s Iconic and evergreen
  3. Watch brands that is not so market driven (or not driving by profits and take a wrong path that will harm future valuations)
  4. Choose the correct metals (steel is evergreen and yet subtle, Platinum in some cases for rarity)
  5. Watch models that are discontinued (we can estimate its production numbers)
  6. Watch size about 38-42mm (human don’t changing wrist size)
  7. Provenance: watches with “good” ownership history, ie. owned by famous watch connoisseur will fetch a premium

A good list for beginners on “investment watches”: http://www.watchpricetrend.com/cost/ 

*Don’t get too excited about limited edition (LE). Too many of LE watches out there are just marketing gimmick. Often manufacturers create a LE by changing the dial colors, hands and accompany it with a special box.  Unless it strictly a LE with a unique case/bracelet design or a watch that is build around an entirely new movement (for example: Harry Winston Opus series).

Rolex Sea-Dweller 4000 ref.116600 with short production of 3years

Previously I talked about some basic fundamentals and principles on watch selection. Choosing a watch for collection is just the first step. Next phase is perhaps the most fun and exciting for collectors: Hunting.

SEEK & ACQUISITION:
1) buying used watch for collection is OK, but we it is important to scrutinized its condition. Whether was it unpolished or still having the original factory parts such as (dial or hands). Factors such as this may not affect the price a lot now, but it will determine whether it fetches a premium price years down the road.
2) Network: Build a strong network with fellow collectors and watch dealers. Do look out for opportunity to trade among the circle of collectors. Sometimes we do need to sell or trade before more acquisitions can come along. You definitely need a trusted avenue for both buying, selling or trade. Also good piece tends to be offer to someone we know since collectors are often remorseful when letting go of watches. We prefer to sell it to someone we know; who knows we may want it back someday?
3) Get compete set, with Box & Paper. It is important  to try and get a complete set, ie. box, warranty card, tags and instruction booklet. It is often more desirable to collectors when a watch comes as a complete set. A complete is easier to sell and of course it commands a higher price too.e know; who knows we may want it back someday?
4) Budget. It is important to invest within one’s budget; similar to all other forms of investment, we only do it with surplus cash.

Keep watches with the compete set: Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15408BA

Wearing, maintaining and reviewing:

Wearing: I often encourage people to wear watches and enjoy. However, we must be clear which are watches in your collection that are the most precious or fragile and limiting their usage will goes a long way of keeping it pristine.

Brand New condition watches my collection will not be worn, for one simple practical reason: Since most of them are still with the original factory seals; wearing it will immediately reduce its status from “NEW” to “USED”. Hence,  I must keep them in the same showroom condition, however if I like it so much, I’ll purchase an Used piece of the same model for wearing.

Fragile or precious ones like vintages watches, should see more limited usage. it is almost inevitable that we will knock our watches against the something as we wear it, so it necessary to choose the  correct watch to suit that day’s activity. 

Daily Beaters, I know it may sound contradictory to have daily beaters as investment watches. Sport watches’ greatest virtue is they can take some punishment without resulting big penalty in valuations, hence it is possible that a daily watch that will appreciate over time, despite for its usage and deterioration of condition. Owners of modern Rolex submariners and GMT will understand this very well. 

Keeping your collection is great condition is also paramount to its future valuations. Below is a great article from the famous auction on how to keep our watches collection in great shape:

http://www.christies.com/features/How-to-store-and-maintain-your-watch-9342-1.aspx

Keeping a record: It is also important to keep track of cost, servicing history of individual watches. Ultimately we to know how much money was committed to each piece and we need it to know whether our investments are indeed profitable of not.

Review the composition of your collection every half a year or so.  We are easily affected by blogs & review. There is always temptations of better watches, but we must keep faith in why we make as a purchase in the first place. However, we do need to a periodically review of the collection and sell off less desirable pieces, because priorities, trend and taste may have being shifting gradually.

Watches such as Daytona 16520 can be very sensitive to over-polishing, careful considerations have to be taken during maintenance regime.

Selling and Profiting taking:

Perhaps the least talk about topic on the subject of Watch investing. For any form of investment there must be an exit. Avenues available to sell a watch can be:

  1. Network of collectors
  2. Trusted dealers who will either buy-in or do consignment of your watch
  3. Online platform such as eBay, Chrono24, Facebook marketplace or Carousell
  4. Some collector choose to build a profile over social media like Instagram and market their watches there themselves
  5. Auctions house

**My Thoughts: “As the monetary easing continues well into 2020s so the stubbornly low interest rates environment will persist, fiat currencies values will continue  to erodes. Holding physical asset such as watches might be an good hedge against it. So on a longer run I will continue to maintain a stable holding of Rolex & Patek Philippe. Pressure from near term COVID crisis may present some buying opportunities, in view of this, I’ll be looking to de-invest some holdings to free up some cash in anticipation.”

**Disclaimer: Past performance does not ensure future results, and there is no assurance from Les Precision that any investment objectives will be met solely base on the information in the above article. Investors should consider their investment objectives and risks before making an investment. Real world economy and financial markets do have a massive influence on the luxury resale market, so please exercise with caution.

Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1A with co-branding Tiffany & Co

What is your Grail watch?

What is your “Grail watch”?
Grail watch in my opinion are the ultimate watches that’s hard to get but attainable within one’s lifetime.

Grail is not necessary an expensive, rather (I feel) it should have an element of rarity, exclusiveness and how it invokes you emotions. For example an expensive watch, likefor exmple a gem set Rolex Day-Date, that’s available in various ADs whole year round, should not really be call a Grail. A vintage Heuer watch model that once worn by my grandfather could be my grail: it is emotional link to may childhood and finding one similar watch now can be extremely difficult.

A tycoon may be in the hunt for an ultra rare 1950s Patek Philippe Perpetual calendar ref. 1518; while an everyday Joe, like most us, may be after a more modest limited edition Omega Snoopy Moonwatch. Grail is really up individual income, commitment, taste and etc.
But too many a time I’ve seen the word horribly overused, many people claiming their next luxury watch purchase to be their Grail.

It is also true that our Grail watch does changes with watch collecting trend or individual income:
  • Someone whom may had successful found an purchased a Grail and may again set sight on a next Grail;
  • Change of individual taste: or identified  a superior watch to be their ultimate watch to hunt…

I feel a grail watch is a time piece that defines you. A watch that you treasure and will eventually pass on to your children. The “holy grail” of any watch hunt are strictly down individual aspirations, a celebration of life and triumphants. It isn’t necessarily about the monetary value, but your grail is really that special watch that you will not give up for any other watches in this world.

                       

Watch buying guide 2020

Time of the year to look what’s worth buying and what’s not. This time round I will list out the best watches your budget can buy. Future price and investment potential are somewhat not given so much weightage (unlike the past).
(Note I using grey market resale price, not necessarily I will follow RRP)

Les Précision recommendation:

$0-1000
– Swatch Sistem51
– Seiko automatic

$1000-5000
– Tudor models
– Omega Seamaster past 007 Limited editons
– Omega 3570.50.00 Moonwatch (discon)
– Panerai PAM 0000, 0005

$5000-7500
– Rolex Explorer 114270
– Panerai PAM112, PAM104
– Hublot Fusion
– IWC Pilot watches

$7500-10000
– Rolex Explorer 2 16570
– Rolex Milgauss 116400GV
– Rolex Explorer 214270

$10000-15000
– Rolex ceramic GMT2 11670LN or Submariner 116610LN
– Rolex DeepSea 116660 (black)
– IWC Big Pilot
– discom Rolex GMT 16710
– discon Rolex Submariner 14060m or 16610
– discon Rolex Sea Dweller 16600

$15000-20000
– Rolex Submariner Green 16610LV(discon) or 116610LV
– Rolex GMT 116710BLNR (batman)
– Rolex DeepSea James Cameroon 116660;126660
– Rolex SD4000 116600 (discon)
– used AP Offshore Drivers, Black Themes or Volcano (discon)

$20000-30000
– AP Royal Oak Offshore Bumble Bee (discon)
– Rolex Daytona 116520
– Rolex GMT 126710BLRO (mk1 bezel)
– AP Royal Oak 15300ST Blue (discon)
– AP Royal Oak 15500ST or 15400ST (discon)
– IWC Perpetual Calendar
– Vacheron Constantin Overseas

$30000-50000
– Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167A
– Rolex Submariner 116619LB
– Rolex Daytona 16520 (Zenith)
– A.Lange & Söhne Grand Lange 1 Moonphase
– AP Royal Oak 15202ST ultra thin

$50000-$100000
– Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1A, 5711/1A, 5712R
– Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5168G; 5164A, 5164R travel time
– Rolex Platinum Daytona 116506,
– discon Rolex Platinum Day-Date2 218238;
– AP Royal oak perpetual calendar 26574ST or Equation of time;
– used Patek Philippe 5070J, 5070G, 5070R (discon)
– A.Lange & Söhne Platinum Datograph (power reserve)
– Hublot Spirit Of Big Bang Sapphire

$100000-$250000
– Patek Philippe 5070P (discon)
– Patek Philippe Nautilus 5980/1A (discon), 5726/1A blue (Grey/White discon)
– Patek Philippe World Time 175th 5575;
– Patek Philippe World Time enamel dial 5131R/J/G
– Richard Mille RM011
– Patek Philippe 5970J 5970R 5970G Grande complications
– Patek Philippe Nautilus 3711/1G, 3712/1A (discon)
– watches from various independent watch makers
– A. Lange & Söhne Lange 31

$250000 and beyond
– Patek Philippe 5004, 5970P Grande complications;
– Patek Philippe 6002G Sky-moon tourbillion
– Rolex Rainbow Daytona and other all diamonds sports Rolex
– Jaeger-LeCoultre Gyrotourbillon 1
– Richard Mille models
– AP Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar Openworked 26585CE.OO.1225CE.01

^^Notably I had omitted the vintages watches in the lineup. For buyers with sophistication and taste for vintages, I feel they might not need a list like above. Also there are many pitfalls in the world of vintage, which is the reason why I will not recommend beginners or intermediate collectors to venture into the vintage Rolex or Patek.

Of course, please buy only what you like to wear. We have a finite and limited funds or budget for watches buying, always be mindful on each watch purchase. Buying a premium-price watch and posting on Instagram may be good fun. But always remember: there is definitely more important things in life. Invest sensibly and please don’t buy on impulse. Wishing everyone a better and safe 2020!

Recession Proof watch?

Is there such thing as a Recession Proof watch?
It’s really been a kind of revaluation for some watch collectors/investors to see a price correction for some of the most sought after watches. I too eagerly watched the video on recession proof watches. (link below:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-aOJ85cPME
unfortunately I may have to express a differ opinion in some of the things he mentioned:

1) Recommending to buy models the never appreciated recently:
There is a reason why these watches (he mentioned) never appreciated in value in the first place, and quite honestly I will feel my wrist deserves better than those “recession-proof” watches. They either not suited for my lifestyle or my age. For example the 36mm President are too small for my wrist.

2) Seriously… going back to AP offshore 42mm?
AP offshore is a massively and insanely popular watch up to a few years a ago. Quite naturally this trend dies off and price had fallen and remain stagnant lately. While it is not exactly a obsolete design like Cathode-Ray tube television, it definitely seem better days. The biggest risk I will run into, is having mocked by friends with slick Royal Oak 15202 on their wrist. Further more I doubt the value of Offshore will hold if there is a price onslaughts during a full blown financial market recession. For a stock that never rise in a boom market, how will you expect it to survive a downturn?

3) Datejust 41mm the worry of greater evil ahead
Nice to see the popularity and fortunes of Datejust Improving. We all know why: Sport Rolex models just simply too hard or expensive to obtain. We use to be able to buy a Datejust from ADs with some discount years ago, now they (Datejust) are flying off the shelf at RRP or being bundled deal with a sport model. Some people I know even purchased Datejust/Day-Date in order to build a relationship with the retailer, in hope of getting a sport Rolex allocation some time in future. In my opinion, to many people bought Datejust that they don’t need recently. When recession hits and there is a need to free up cash, trust me, people will offload the Datejust first. When that happens, secondary market may not have the ability to absorb them all and that make them an illiquid asset. What’s worse? Falling price for sports Rolex or illiquid dressy Rolex?

4) Gold President Day-Date
If there is one thing that’s as true as: “sun rises from the east” that will be Rolex President (“Rolex King” 1803, 18038) value will appreciated over the time. They are make of solid 18k gold and hence the value material provides a good hedge against inflation, as simple as that. Those Day-Date with extremely desirable dial like “Stellar” have prices already shot up into the stratosphere recently, so please be extremely careful.

SO? What shall we do then?
While we love to see the price of watches grow, too many of us simply neglected what other advantages a wrist-watch have: for example, giving us the style, the confident, the distraction of modern day stress, the projection of our personality , etc..
I’ll argue that NOW is even more crucial to have a “correct” watch wrist strapped on our wrist than any other time, since the invention of portable time-telling devices: We often don’t want to be spotted with an ugly watch or too expensive timepiece that too overwhelming for the occasions, etc.
So please choose the watches wisely. It is true price will fall during recession, so is other asset classes like shares and property. BUT isn’t it true that they will rebound after the recession?
We can hold back the expansion of our collection, and postponed the purchases. Maybe in time, lower prices or better opportunities may present itself. Just please don’t buy whatever (that’s presented in the video that I share) if you don’t like them, it is hard to liquidate them in future.

While we can’t live without a roof over our head, neither do we want to lose the comfort and luxury having beautiful timepieces. Every unhappy day is a waste, as our time on this planet is finite. So is every day that has passed by without a good watch on our wrist. Believe me, value isn’t everything…..

#It’sMyLife #rolex #patek

Watch Market Review fall/winter 2019

There’s certainly a cloud of uncertainties going to the final months of 2019. The 2 biggest economics are locked in a long and sustained treat of trade war; while the biggest watch market, Hong Kong is deeply embroiled in unrest. After a strong showing in the H1 2019. The sustainability of the price growth was severely tested in the Q3. Weakness in price for popular modern Rolex models such as Daytona, Hulk, GMT. Prices have dropped about 15-30% in some of these models. Patek Nautilus too are fell 10-25%. Though the correction was after an unprecedented pricing boom, many investors who have faith still pretty much sit on a large paper profit. For example if you bought a new Hulk in 2014 it is still worth about S$4000 more than what you has paid for.

We do find some stability in the resale prices lately, although the sale volume is predictably low. Nevertheless the price crash which we worried didn’t happened. This could be due to the fact the there’s still a long line of people on the waiting list for some other these models. The price drop on the secondary market is inconsequential to those the wait list, because are they (the wait list people) will not want to pay the premium prices to get hold of these Rolex or Patek; they continue to soak up the new stocks and not spilling it to resale market yet. Thus the supply continues to be tight.

Silver lining:
1. Investing for the future?
A Patek Philippe watch recently smashed the world record for the most expensive watch ever sold. What so surprising is that, unlike the previous record holders, this watch is just newly created as a unique piece for a charity auction. No history, no provenance, just the most complicated Patek Philippe wrist watch movement housed in a stainless steel case. This we observed it as a sign of new investment mindset that’s prevailing in today’s financial world: people are buying into future prices. They are willing to risk paying higher price premium on an investment now and wait for it to mature to realized the full price potential many years down the road: Likes of Uber or Netflix are good example. Rolex Hulk are another good example: investors and collectors alike bought the prices up in anticipation of the discontinuation of ref. 116610LV. Surely it is matter of time Rolex will stop making the 3135 Calibre. This is phenomenal is mainly due to the very stable and prolong low interest rate environment. Fixed income yield are getting scarcer, investors don’t mind parking cash on investment that will eventually yield years down the road. Some countries where there’s negative interest rates, the people have to pay interest just for keeping the money in the banks. Why not invest in watches instead?
2. Omega moonwatch,
is doing particularly well. The white snoopy has hit S$30k, great accomplishment. For a modern Omega, of course partially have to thanks to 50th Anniversary of the Apollo landing. Just when the overall market is dull, this looks like a light beacon in the stormy coast.
3. Watch Safe haven?
Amid the uncertainty else where around the globe, people are exiting from investment that’s hit by the trade wars. Like physical gold, value of a Rolex will not plummet to zero in value. This could well be an alternative hedge as compare to bonds, the latter yield is at all time low as result of many factors (which I am not able to cover in the write-up. Of course choosing the correct watch model is paramount. But important to remember safe haven don’t means profit. It’s just like one’s having to decide gold to meet his hedging needs, he will not expect gold trade to make money, rather it is purely for value or capital protection. In troubled time when asset value vaporizing and crashing, having protected his capital, one’s able buy more asset simply with this same amount of capital, isn’t that a form of profit?

Les Precision: how we reacted
Remember last quarter (Q3) I mentioned we are looking to lower inventories and free up cash. That pays off somewhat, we liquidated some of holdings such as the 116710LN, 16600 and 116520. That enables us to hit the cash target, at the same time avoiding losses due to the falling prices of 116710LN prices.
Of course we still have a sizable holding of 116710LN, but we expect the price to stabilize as the ADs by now have cleared the last of the 116710LN stocks. We are now 40 – 60 of Cash vs Rolex/Patek. All the watch held are discontinued models, where we have greater clarity of its production numbers etc.
We also not expect any strong price surge as the trade war had clipped the wings of many deep pockets Chinese buyers and dampen mood of other collectors. Neither will we expect a price crash as the linger low interests environment will continue to encourage people to spend.


What’s next for us?
As the monetary easing continues, fiat currencies values will erodes again physical asset. So on a longer run we will continue a stable holding of Rolex/Patek. Near term we might seek to de-invest some Rolex pieces and prepare the cash for better opportunities. This might means realizes loses on 116710LN and etc. As the market enters a lull, good pieces may be easier to obtain as seller is more patience with offers and negotiations.

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Disclaimer: This is solely a personal interpretation of the current situation and macroeconomic. I am not liable for any losses resulting from any misinterpretation, copycat investment or what so ever.
If you are thinking of making an investment into watches, do understand the risk involved. My article are solely based on current outlook and it does not guarantee situation will remain as described in (near) future. Real world economy and financial markets do have a massive influence on the luxury resale market, so please exercise with caution.

Daytona mania

Daytona Mania!!
White 116500LN already shot past S$30k. Seem like nothing can quite stop the relentless demand for these beauties… The long waiting list, there’s just not enough of them to go around, yet.

Perpetual Calendars Head-to-head: Royal Oak vs Nautilus

Audemars Piguet 26574ST.OO.1220ST.02 vs Patek Phlippe 5740/1G

The rivary between the 2 most iconic sports watch design has take another new level when Patek Philippe launched Nautilus in perpetual calendar ref. 5740G this year. Below is a short comparison between these 2 enternal rivals. Let me know what you feel.  🙂

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Patek Phlippe Natilus 5740/1G
Ref: 26574ST.OO.1220ST.02 Ref: 5740/1G

Well balanced layout on the Royal Oak dial. The watch even has the 52weeks-of-a-year indicator.

Finally a complication that all Nautilus fan long for. Result wasn’t that desirable?? The sub dial 3/9 o’clock has broken the harmony and balance of the Nautilus look, (the harmony of horizontal of strips against to Oval bezel). The circles are just screaming straight into your face.

“ROYAL OAK” “QUANTIEME PERPETUEL” around the movement, an innovative way of camouflaging the fact that a smaller movement was being housed in the enlarged (41mm) case

5740/1G case back, look exactly like a 5712/1A. After all they both share same base movement.

Audemars Piguet Caliber 5143 (front)

Patek Philippe Caliber 240 Q (front)

Audemars Piguet Caliber 5134 (back)

Patek Philippe Caliber 240 Q (back)

Close up of the dial: Blue “Grande Tapisserie”

The usually crowded dial, by Nautilus standard

Audemars Piguet
 26574ST.OO.1220ST.02 (2015)

Diameter: 41mm
Thickness: 9.5mm
Case Material: Stainless Steel
Dial Color: Blue “Grande Tapisserie”
Indexes: Applied batons and Arabic numerals
Lume: On hands and hour markers
Water Resistance: 20 meters
Strap/Bracelet: Stainless steel bracelet with AP folding clasp.

Patek Philippe
5740/1G-001 (2018)

Diameter: 40mm
Thickness: 8.42mm
Case Material: White gold
Dial Color: Blue
Indexes: Applied batons and Arabic numerals
Lume: On hands and hour markers
Water Resistance: 60 meters
Strap/Bracelet: Integrated white gold bracelet

The Movement

Caliber: Manufacture 5134
Functions: Perpetual calendar with week indication, day, date, astronomical moon, month, leap year, hours and minutes.
Diameter: 29mm
Thickness: 4.31mm
Power Reserve:  40 hours
Winding: The oscillating weight,  guided by a peripheral ring
Frequency: 2.75 Hz (19,800 vph)
Jewels: 38
Total Components: 374

The Movement

Caliber: 240 Q
Functions: Hours, minutes, 24-hour dial, perpetual calendar with month, day of the week, date, leap year indicator and moonphase
Diameter: 27.5mm
Thickness: 3.88mm
Power Reserve: 38-48 hours
Winding: Automatic with micro-rotor
Frequency: 3 Hz (21,600 vph)
Jewels: 27
Total Components: 275